Public support is the most valuable political capital any government possesses. But when leaders drift away from the priorities of their people, that capital can rapidly disappear. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that U.S. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has fallen to 33 percent—the lowest level of his current presidency. Meanwhile, 64 percent of Americans disapprove of his performance.
These figures represent more than an ordinary decline in a president’s popularity. They reveal a deep connection between domestic politics, economic pressure and America’s prolonged involvement in Iran. Trump promised to lower prices, restore economic stability and keep the United States out of lengthy foreign wars. Americans now face a different reality: the conflict is dragging on, energy markets have been disrupted, fuel prices have risen and household finances are under growing pressure.
The finding that 80 percent of respondents expect U.S. involvement in Iran to continue for an extended period reflects the depth of public concern. When citizens neither understand a war’s objectives nor trust that it will end soon, the government risks defeat not only abroad but also politically at home. A war may begin through the use of force, but its continuation is paid for through people’s incomes, security and peace of mind.
History shows that major powers sometimes enter conflicts believing victory can be achieved within weeks. Wars, however, do not follow presidential speeches or electoral timetables. Every attack creates the possibility of retaliation, every prolonged confrontation damages international trade, and every economic shock eventually reaches the tables of ordinary families. Instability in the Strait of Hormuz, in particular, is not merely an issue between Iran and the United States; it is a serious threat to global energy supplies, commerce and economic stability.
Trump’s declining approval rating also demonstrates that the public does not give governments a blank cheque for endless wars. Military power may devastate a region, but lasting peace can only be achieved through a clear strategy, accountability and diplomacy. If the conflict with Iran continues, its political consequences will reach the ballot boxes in America’s midterm elections, while its economic effects will be felt far beyond the United States.
The central question for Washington is no longer how much military power it can deploy, but whether it has a credible and rational strategy for ending the conflict. Governments may choose when to begin a war, but they cannot always control how or when it ends.
Trump should not regard the 33 percent approval rating as merely another statistic. It is a warning from an anxious public: A leadership that promises peace and economic prosperity but delivers a prolonged war and higher living costs will ultimately be forced to pay the political price at home.
