The decision of drawdown of half US troops in Afghanistan prior to any peace deal with the Taliban is alarming as it will embolden and assure the Taliban that they can achieve their ends militarily. It will further shrink the chances of success of ongoing peace efforts, particularly in terms of bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table with Afghan government. The Taliban, who think they have an upper hand in the battlefield, can easily convince their fighters to continue the fight. The protraction of war finally turning a war of attrition itself is a victory for insurgent groups like the Taliban.
The withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan is necessary for peace, but it should be done the right way and at a right time. The impulsive drawdown of US troops and one oblivious to the ground realities in Afghanistan as announced by President Donald Trump is against commitments and pacts between Kabul and Washington. The move is particularly in violation of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that regulates and guides bilateral security relations between US and Afghanistan.
Afghans frustrated and exhausted by the continued war more than Americans want a peaceful settlement of the problem, but the hasty withdrawal of troops is not a solution. Even if that is true, it is only for the United States, meaning that President Trump will get the credit for ending America’s longest war. But for Afghans, that will not bring an end to their long-running tragedy, and may rather put them at a more difficult situation. It can also deal a major blow to the already plummeting US global standing, introducing it as the most unreliable partner which no one may trust in the future.
All sides, including the US whose military presence is a contributing factor in the conflict, must act responsibly. Washington has to first facilitate direct talks between Afghan government and the Taliban, and then back the engagement in close harmony with its Western allies and regional powers so that it can culminate in a successful peace deal, one that is guaranteed by regional and global powers, and allows for a troop drawdown schedule that consistent with the ground realities of Afghanistan and acceptable to all sides. Prior to creating or meeting these conditions, the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan is a disaster, at least for Afghan people.
