China is expected to step up diplomatic efforts to drive the Afghanistan peace process in order to safeguard its interests in the region after the US withdraws its troops from the war-ravaged country, analysts said.
After talks with Taliban representatives, US chief negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad on Monday said the two sides had agreed “in principle” to the framework of a peace deal that would pave the way for the Americans to leave Afghanistan, The New York Times reported. Under the deal, the militants would negotiate with Kabul and prevent terrorist groups from using Afghan territory.
Analysts said the pull-out of US troops raised the stakes for Beijing, which has long been concerned that instability in Afghanistan could spill across its border. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a Muslim separatist militant group that Beijing has branded a terrorist organization, has in the past operated in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Li Lifan, a Central Asian affairs expert with the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said Beijing would likely use diplomatic platforms such as the SCO to advance the Afghan peace process.
“Beijing may use the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to push forward peace negotiations between the conflicting parties since China could pay a high price if instability continues in Afghanistan,” he said, referring to the security bloc led by Beijing and Moscow.
Li added that the United States might not pull out all its troops from Afghanistan, and could instead keep a limited military presence there, such as a drone fleet, to help stabilize the volatile situation.
In June, Chinese President Xi Jinping highlighted the anti-terrorism role of the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group as part of efforts to facilitate peace and reconstruction in the war-torn country.
China also joined peace talks between the Taliban and Afghan government held in Moscow in November.
Zhang Weiting, an Afghanistan affairs specialist at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said Beijing could also support the peace process with economic aid.
“China could offer Afghanistan financial support and build more infrastructure projects that involve both the Taliban and the Afghan government, and that may help reduce hostilities between the two sides,” Zhang said.