Rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan are threatening efforts to expand trade and transport links between Central and South Asia, putting ambitious regional economic targets at risk.
According to a report by Eurasianet, strained relations between Islamabad and Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate authorities are undermining plans to strengthen commercial ties between Pakistan and Central Asian countries.
Kazakhstan lowers trade expectations
Kazakhstan has adopted a more cautious outlook on trade with Pakistan, with officials estimating the potential for bilateral trade growth at around $645 million.
The figure emerged during November 1 talks in Astana between Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin and Pakistani Investment Minister Qaiser Ahmed Sheikh, falling short of earlier expectations that annual trade could exceed $1 billion.
Uzbekistan’s $2 billion target faces hurdles
Uzbekistan and Pakistan have also set an ambitious target of increasing annual bilateral trade to $2 billion within five years.
However, existing trade figures highlight the challenge. In 2024, Pakistan exported $129 million worth of goods to Uzbekistan, while Uzbek exports to Pakistan reached $257 million. Trade showed little growth in 2025.
Afghanistan tensions complicate regional connectivity
Eurasianet identifies the ongoing tensions between Kabul and Islamabad as a major obstacle to developing reliable transport corridors linking Central Asian markets with Pakistani seaports.
Pakistan has promoted its ports as strategic gateways for landlocked Central Asian economies, offering access to international shipping routes. However, security concerns and strained relations with Afghanistan threaten the reliability of these connections.
The diplomatic divide was also evident during the October meeting of the Moscow Format, where disagreements between Afghan and Pakistani representatives over terrorism-related terminology prevented the participants from issuing a joint statement.
Despite continued efforts to strengthen economic cooperation, the developments highlight how security tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan could undermine broader plans to connect Central and South Asian markets and expand regional trade.
