The World Bank is predicting broadly slower growth for the next two years in the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia.
The World Bank forecast published this month, titled Global Economic Prospects, projects Georgia and Azerbaijan to experience the biggest declines in real GDP growth of all Caucasian and Central Asian states.
Georgia, which is grappling with a political crisis precipitated by the government’s sharp geopolitical turn away from the West, is projected to see its annual real GDP growth rate shrink from an estimated 9 percent in 2024 to 5 percent by 2026. Azerbaijan’s growth rate is projected to decline from last year’s 4 percent to 2.4 percent in 2026, due to an expected drop in oil production. The growth rate for Armenia is projected to fall moderately, from 5.5 percent last year to 4.6 percent next year.
Economic growth in most Central Asian states is projected to remain mostly flat, or experience slight dips in growth in the coming years. An increase in oil exports is projected to push up Kazakhstan’s growth rate in 2025 to 4.7 percent from last year’s estimated rate of 4 percent. But the country’s rate in 2026 is expected to settle back to 3.5 percent.
Tajikistan is projected to be Central Asia’s worst economic performer with the growth rate predicted to recede to 5 percent in 2026 from last year’s rate of 8 percent.
Growth rates in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are projected to remain comparatively stable over the next two years at 4.5 percent and 5.8 percent respectively. The World Bank did not report economic data for Turkmenistan.
