The Shanghai Agreement has enormous economic, political, cultural, and military potential, which could seriously threaten Western domination in these areas and become the main alternative to the future hegemony of power in the international system. The SCO member and supervisor countries are by far the largest producers and consumers of energy in the world. The total area of the member countries of this organization is 36889607 square kilometers or about a quarter of the land surface. The nine-member states also have a population of about 3.363 billion, accounting for about 43% of the world’s population. In this article, some of these capacities will be assessed.
- Military replacement capacity:The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is currently recognized as the most important military hub in the world. As NATO expanded eastward, the power of this collective security alliance increased to the point that even Russia wanted to join it in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Shanghai Agreement has a more comprehensive potential for military cooperation than NATO; The armies of the Covenant member states are equipped with all the advanced military equipment and high military capability if a collective security system is established; In addition, the four nuclear powers of Pakistan, India, China, and Russia will give the alliance a high deterrent power. In addition, China and Russia, as two permanent members of the Security Council, can manage global security and military crises. With the collapse of the Warsaw Pact after the Cold War, no comprehensive military alliance has been formed that can compete with NATO; Creating a military alliance in the form of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization could re-establish competitiveness with NATO.
- Economic Alternative Capacity:Young and cost-effective labor force in this pact, especially in China and India compared to the aging population of the West, has provided a high comparative advantage for the rapid economic growth of these countries. Recent technological advances in Asia, especially in China, give the region a promising knowledge-based economy; Except for a few “single” cases, the technological infrastructure needed to compete with the West in the region is provided. The diversity of products among member countries is such that they can easily meet each other’s needs, and the production and consumption markets of both member countries are sufficient. Energy resources in western China, Central Asia, Russia, and Iran can meet the energy needs of member countries. Russia and Iran are the top two countries in natural gas reserves, as well as major exporters of crude oil, whose export capacity could be directed to members of the Shanghai Agreement. But the turning point in economic cooperation between member countries is the creation of a single currency to replace the dollar. Thus, for the first time since World War II, the dominance of the dollar and its negative economic consequences for these countries will end and the tactic of US economic sanctions against countries such as Iran, Russia, and China will be ineffective. Also, the transfer of US inflation to the world and the monopoly of energy exchange with the dollar, all of which were held by the US due to its international currency, will disappear.
- Cultural Alternative Capacity:The American cultural industry is currently emerging as the most important tool for advancing US media diplomacy and soft power in the world. The presence of brilliant and ancient civilizations among the members of Shanghai with its rich cultural heritage can provide an alternative to American culture and lifestyle. Even with the creation of a common visa similar to the Schengen experience in the EU, the amazing cultural and climatic diversity of Shanghai member states; From the beaches and forests to the desert and the mountains and islands, along with the most important cultural and ancient heritage of the world, the needs of the people of this region for tourism will be fully covered. The cultural ills of the West, such as consumerism, moral carelessness, meaninglessness, capitalism, and environmental degradation, can replace the old Eastern values and bring about a great change in the future of human civilization.
- Replacing Hegemony:It is very difficult to get rid of the American Empire and end its years of domination without unity and global polarization. Countries such as Iran, China, and Russia have long shared views on opposing the status quo and resisting American domination. India, as an ancient civilization and one of the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement, which has seen leaders like Gandhi and Nehru, has the intellectual capacity to act independently in the international system.
At the same time, the pact is open to countries such as Turkey, Qatar, North Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and all other countries wishing to play a separate role from US domination in the geometry of world power. Undoubtedly, the United States will make every effort to split into the Shanghai Agreement and prevent the formation of a powerful global pole.
Iran’s long and irrational expectation of becoming a permanent member under the pretenses of some members, such as Tajikistan, reflects US influence in the treaty. However, history has always witnessed the emergence of new powers and the decline of empires, something that, according to some thinkers such as Montesquieu or Ibn Khaldun, has been and will be the inevitability of history.
In the meantime, historical sites will help accelerate this process; Just as World War II was a turning point in the rise of American power. The result is that the Shanghai Treaty is a place of great hope for the revival of the world’s ancient powers, which in the modern era were left behind by the West and are now, from the American point of view, always considered second and third.
As we have seen, the creation of a new power bloc against the West in the form of the Shanghai Treaty is, at least in theory, possible; Until the game happens.
