All parties to the Afghan conflict and the international community at large have come to the conclusion that the bloody war in Afghanistan has no military solution. After 18 years of violence and bloodshed, a unique opportunity has emerged to find a political settlement to the conflict. In what appears to be a U-turn policy shift from rejecting direct negotiations with the Taliban, the United States has already kicked off talks with the Taliban. US President Donald Trump who is against American involvement in foreign military missions has promised with the American people during his election campaign to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan, and he seems to be following through his commitment to boost his chances of re-election. The yearlong direct US-Taliban negotiations are a proof of his resolve and policy shift.
Although Trump called off the peace talks, both sides signal to be willing to resume the process in the near future. As part of the efforts to revive the talks, US Special Envoy for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad on Monday began his mission to ensure coordination among the stakeholders on Afghan peace. As part of the first leg of his tour, he has briefed the secretary general of NATO on the situation of Afghanistan. He will then fly to Paris and Moscow, where he will attend a quadrilateral meeting of US, Russia, China and Pakistan on Afghan peace process. Khalilzad’s trip is a key and welcome development to revive the currently stalled Afghan peace process.
There is no doubt about the restart of negotiations, so the main point of discussion now is how the parties to the talks can avoid past mistakes. The United States and the Taliban that are currently engaged in the bilateral talks must exercise caution and flexibility. The US has already shown flexibility, but the Taliban also need to follow suit, though America’s compulsion to withdraw troops from Afghanistan cements Taliban’s leverage. Still, the Taliban should not construe this as if the US pullout is inevitable because Trump does not have an absolute power to make unilateral decisions. For him, it will be difficult to pull out all US forces from Afghanistan without any political deal.
Moreover, there is a need for coordination between Afghan and US governments on the peace process. The US, especially Khalilzad, is yet to win Afghan government’s trust. The two sides have to bridge their differences and adopt a unified stance against the Taliban.