Israel’s deepening attacks in Gaza for what it has called the “next stage of the war” are likely to embroil more regional military forces, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, in the conflict which has lasted for more than two weeks, as well as increase the spillover risk and escalate anti-Israeli sentiment around the world, Chinese experts predict, as the Cairo Peace Summit aimed at de-escalation ended without a breakthrough.
An escalation of Israeli military operations in Gaza could see the US bogged down in another crisis in the Middle East, Chinese experts said, as the US is sending additional air defense systems to the region and helping Israel to down missiles and drones. As Washington is drawn deeper into the conflict, its attention on the Asia-Pacific strategy may be diluted, experts said.
Israel’s military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told reporters on Saturday night that Israel plans to step up its attacks on the Gaza Strip starting Saturday as preparation for the next stage of its war on Hamas. Asked about a possible ground invasion into Gaza, Hagari said that the military is trying to create optimal conditions beforehand.
“From today, we are increasing the strikes and minimizing the danger,” Hagari told reporters, which is seen as a clear signal of an imminent ground incursion.
Israel has offered no timeline for the possible ground offensive on Gaza, but military officials have repeatedly told troops an incursion is imminent. Israeli Military Chief of Staff, Herzl Halevi, told Israel Defense Forces commanders Saturday that the military will initiate an operation to “destroy” Hamas.
As the conflict has already dragged on for more than two weeks, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has gripped world attention. The Palestinian Ministry of Health said during a news conference on Saturday that the death toll in Gaza has now reached 4,385 – including 1,756 children and 967 women – in addition to 13,561 injured. Seventy percent of the casualties are women, children and elderly people, the ministry spokesperson said.
An Israeli soldier is seen at a position of a self-propelled howitzer deployed in northern Israel bordering Lebanon, on Oct. 18, 2023. Lebanon’s Hezbollah said on Wednesday it has launched several attacks on Israeli targets with guided missiles. In a statement, the Shiite militant group said it targeted three Israeli sites with missiles, including a center for Israeli soldiers and a surveillance and reconnaissance system south of Al-Manara in northern Israel, “causing several casualties.”(Photo: Xinhua)
Spillover effects
It is possible that other military forces in the region such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah could become involved if Israel intensifies its pounding of Gaza in the near future, Tian Wenlin, a research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times. He said that if Israel deepens its military operation, Hezbollah may use Israel’s ground operation in Gaza, which is likely to result in more deaths and a more serious humanitarian crisis, as an excuse to become embroiled.
Tian warned of the danger of the Palestine-Israel conflict spilling over to the wider region if such a scenario occurs.
A top official with Hezbollah vowed that Israel will pay a high price if it starts a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip and said Saturday that his militant group based in Lebanon already is “in the heart of the battle,” AP reported.
At the same time, world leaders and representatives attended the Cairo Peace Summit on Saturday, in the hope of de-escalating the conflict, though there was no breakthrough, media reported.
Arab leaders at the meeting condemned the Israeli bombardment of Gaza as European officials said civilians should be shielded, but there were no participants from Israel nor senior US officials.
Speaking at the summit, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appealed for “a humanitarian ceasefire now.” He emphasized three key things to help de-escalate the crisis: “Immediate, unrestricted and sustained humanitarian aid for besieged civilians in Gaza. Immediate unconditional release of all hostages in Gaza. And immediate and dedicated efforts to prevent the spread of the violence, which is increasing the risk of spillover.”
China is concerned about the escalation of the Palestine-Israel conflict and condemns all actions that harm civilians and violate international laws, said Zhai Jun, special envoy of the Chinese government on the Middle East issue at the Cairo Peace Summit on Saturday. Zhai called to cool down any further military actions that provoke the situation and for the opening of humanitarian corridors.
Neither a consensus nor a breakthrough is likely without the participation of Israel or the US, the only country that can influence Israel to stop the striking, Li Weijian, a research fellow with the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told the Global Times. Li noted that with Israel’s revenge instinct uncurbed, a ground operation in Gaza seems inevitable, and therefore more bloodshed.
Instead of calling for restraint from Israel, the US on Saturday circulated the text of a draft UN Security Council resolution that emphasizes Israel’s right to defend itself, Reuters reported.
Experts said the draft again mirrors the US’ biased stance toward the conflict and only emphasizes that Israel’s right to defend itself equates to a US endorsement of Israel’s attack in Gaza that will further escalate the situation.
People remove a victim from a building destroyed in Israeli airstrikes in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah, on Oct. 17, 2023. The number of Palestinian deaths caused by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza has risen to 3,000, according to the Gaza-based Health Ministry. The Israeli airstrikes were triggered by a large-scale Hamas attack on Israeli military targets and towns on Oct. 7, which has so far killed at least 1,300 people in Israel.(Photo: Xinhua)
US Achilles’ heel
Israel’s continued military operation is also bogging the US down with regard to military involvement in the Middle East. The Pentagon said on Saturday that the US will send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and an additional Patriot air defense missile system battalion to the Middle East, in response to recent attacks on US troops in the region.
A US official told the CNN that a US warship shot down more than a dozen drones and four cruise missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebel militia between 19 and 20 October.
The US has sent a significant amount of naval power to the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, their support ships and about 2,000 marines.
An escalation of the Palestine-Israel conflict is not what Washington desires as it is not in line with its interests, moreover, the US will inevitably have to get involved if tensions increase, Li said, adding that “the more military presence the US has in the region, the higher the chance is that the US will be targeted and therefore drawn into the crisis.”
Biden and his top aides have been urging Israeli leaders against carrying out any major strike against Hezbollah that could draw it into the current conflict, The New York Times reported on Friday. The report said that US officials believe Israel would struggle in a two-front war in both its south and north, and that such a conflict could draw in both the US and Iran.
Tian, however, believes the US is already involved, citing that it has downed drones and missiles fired from Yemen. “The US is now pivoting its strategic emphasis from the Middle East to Asia-Pacific. However, if the Palestine-Israel conflict escalates, the US will become bogged down deeper in another Middle East crisis,” Tian said.
Tian described Israel as the Achilles’ heel of US foreign diplomacy, as “it always disrupts the US’ planned deployments, but the US’ hands are tied on this issue.”
