Tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan have run extremely high following a suicide attack killing 44 Indian soldiers in Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir. Despite warnings from Islamabad against any Indian incursion, Indian Air Force (IAF) carried out targeted strikes against what India called Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) training center deep inside Pakistani territory. Though Islamabad denies casualties in the predawn air raids, Indian officials claim to have struck JeM camp, killing as many as 300 of its members. A senior Indian diplomat has asserted that the camp was targeted because it was being used to train militants for more attacks against India.
The escalation between India and Pakistan can have serious repercussions not only for the two nations, but also for the entire region, particularly for Afghanistan as political efforts to end the decades-long conflict have ever gained momentum. The continuation of tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad may hamper Afghan peace efforts, as the Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan had warned a while ago that Indian incursion into Pakistani territory would affect Afghan peace process.
Although Pakistan is not expected to show any serious reaction to the strikes, and will most likely continue with its long-held policy of using terror groups as foreign policy tool instead of engaging in a conventional war with India, Islamabad can use the Indian incursion as a pretext to pull the plug on its support for the Afghan peace process. Pakistan may tie its backing for and contribution in Afghan peace on America’s stand against India. Even the possibility that the Pulwama terror attack on Indian forces may have intentionally been masterminded by Pakistan at this time in a bid to lure the United States into assisting Pakistan in return for its facilitation of a peace deal with the Taliban cannot be ruled out.
Even the possibility that the Pulwama terror attack on Indian forces may have intentionally been masterminded by Pakistan at this time in a bid to secure American support by exploiting Washington’s compulsion for Islamabad’s support for a peace deal with the Taliban cannot be ruled out.
The United States that has now taken the lead of Afghan peace process must realize the threat, and not allow Pakistan to use the Indian attack or the strained Indo-Pak relations as ploy to scuttle Afghan peace talks. Washington should clearly communicate to Islamabad that the world no longer can tolerate Pakistan’s support for terror groups, and it behooves Islamabad to indiscriminately act against all terrorist groups operating in its soil with unfettered freedom.