Casualties among Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) have been on an upward trajectory over the recent few years, but reached an unsustainably high level especially over the last several months. Although Afghan government keeps the actual death toll secret, President Ghani acknowledged last week that approximately 29,000 members of Afghan forces have been killed since 2015, a figure that constitutes eight percent of the total number of ANDSF, if it still is a real death toll, and if the total number of Afghan forces is 350,000. In addition to the 29,000 soldiers killed, thousands of others have been wounded, a portion of whom might have not returned to duty because of physical disability, and meanwhile there are reports of existence of ghost soldiers among Afghan troops.
It is right that casualties among Afghan forces are inevitable as long as there is war, but if they continue as now, the chances of survival and sustainability of ANDSF will shrink. High death toll depletes the ranks of Afghan forces on the one hand and leaves major psychological impact on them on the other hand. When reports of such high toll of Afghan forces are released, Afghan youth will not join ANDSF if they have other work opportunity, an issue that leads to a shortage of new recruits for Afghan forces, and when that happens, it becomes impossible for the regime as well as ANDSF to survive, given the huge disparity between their losses and recruits.
The government leadership must make the reduction of casualty rate of Afghan forces a high priority to ensure the survival of the regime and avoid the bitter mistakes of the past. It is only possible through reforms and elimination of corruption in ANDSF leadership. They both require a political will, something that is unfortunately not expected from the current government leadership, especially at a time when all of its focus is on the campaign for upcoming presidential election. Neither can the government manage the war in a way that will protect the property and lives of ordinary citizens, as well as lives of its soldiers, nor focuses enough on the peaceful settlement of the conflict in order to get the people out of the current limbo. Government leaders should not overlook the fragile situation in the country, and must take immediate actions at least to salvage the regime from an imminent downfall.
