US Director for National Intelligence, Daniel Coats issued delivered his United States Intelligence Community’s 2019 assessment of threats to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and said terrorism will continue to be a top threat to US and partner interests worldwide.
He also said migration is likely to continue to fuel social and interstate tensions globally, as would drugs and transnational organized crime and political turbulence in many regions.
He said issues such as deepening turbulence in Afghanistan would also stoke tensions.
Coats said the challenges facing South Asian states would increase in 2019 because of Afghanistan’s presidential election in mid-July and the Taliban’s large-scale attacks, Pakistan’s recalcitrance in dealing with militant groups, and Indian elections that risk communal violence.
“We assess that neither the Afghan Government nor the Taliban will be able to gain a strategic military advantage in the Afghan war in the coming year if coalition support remains at current levels,” he said in his report.
“Afghan forces generally have secured cities and other government strongholds, but the Taliban has increased large-scale attacks, and Afghan security suffers from a large number of forces being tied down in defensive missions, mobility shortfalls, and a lack of reliable forces to hold recaptured territory,” he said.
On what was described as Pakistan’s non-cooperation, Coats said in his report that militant groups supported by Pakistan will continue to take advantage of their safe haven in Pakistan to plan and conduct attacks in India and Afghanistan, including against US interests.
“Islamabad’s narrow approach to counterterrorism cooperation – using some groups as policy tools and confronting only the militant groups that directly threaten Pakistan – almost certainly will frustrate US counterterrorism efforts against the Taliban,” he said.
On weapons of mass destruction, he said the continued growth and development of Pakistan and India’s nuclear weapons programs increase the risk of a nuclear security incident in South Asia, and the new types of nuclear weapons will introduce new risks for escalation dynamics and security in the region.
“Pakistan continues to develop new types of nuclear weapons, including short-range tactical weapons, sea-based cruise missiles, air-launched cruise missiles, and longer range ballistic missiles.
“India this year conducted its first deployment of a nuclear-powered submarine armed with nuclear missiles,” he said.
On al-Qaeda, he said the group’s senior leaders “are strengthening the network’s global command structure and continuing to encourage attacks against the West, including the United States, although most al-Qaeda affiliates’ attacks to date have been small scale and limited to their regional areas.
“We expect that al-Qaeda’s global network will remain a CT challenge for the United States and its allies during the next year.
“Al-Qaeda media continues to call for attacks against the United States, including in statements from regional al-Qaeda leaders, reflecting the network’s enduring efforts to pursue or inspire attacks in the West.
“All al-Qaeda affiliates are involved in insurgencies and maintain safe havens, resources, and the intent to strike local and regional US interests in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia,” he stated.
Coats went on to say that al-Qaeda affiliates in East and North Africa, the Sahel, and Yemen remain the largest and most capable terrorist groups in their regions.
“All have maintained a high pace of operations during the past year, despite setbacks in Yemen, and some have expanded their areas of influence.
“Al-Qaeda elements in Syria, meanwhile, continue to undermine efforts to resolve that conflict, while the network’s affiliate in South Asia provides support to the Taliban,” he said.
