This week a Taliban delegation, led by its deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, met with Pakistani officials in Islamabad. While in Pakistan it is expected that Baradar will meet with senior Taliban leadership too. This visit to Pakistan comes on the heels of a mutually agreed 20-day pause in the ongoing intra-Afghan peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
Even though peace talks have been largely stalled since commencing in September, in the past few weeks there have been some positive developments. Since September there has been a disagreement on which version of Islamic Law would govern the talks. The Taliban favored a version largely observed by Sunni Muslims and not Shiite. Since Shiite Muslims form a sizeable minority in Afghanistan, the Afghan government was reasonably concerned by this. After months of negotiations, both sides finally agreed to the legal framework in which to conduct the intra-Afghan talks.
It is unclear when the talks will next begin again in earnest. There has been no specific date announced for the resumption of talks after the 20-day hiatus ends. Regardless of when the next round of talks might be, there has been calls by some, led by Afghanistan’s National Security Adviser, Hamdullah Mohib, to have the talks moved from Doha to somewhere in Afghanistan.
In a statement Mohib stated “Peace talks within Afghanistan will help create a credible exclusive security zone and enable the Afghan people to own and oversee peace and negotiations. Negotiators will be better aware of the grievances and demands of their countrymen and will avoid additional costs in the process.” While this position might seem perfectly reasonable to most, the Taliban has rejected this proposal outright. Even so, the Afghan government has said they will not let this disagreement postpone the next round of talks. The U.S. has encouraged both sides to get back to the table as quickly as possible.
One of President Trump’s most surprising, if not courageous, decisions of his presidency was seeking a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. While his two predecessors paid lip service to a negotiated settlement in the past, only President Trump was able to get the process started in any meaningful way.
It is likely that the next round of intra-Afghan talks will take place near the time of the presidential inauguration in the U.S. on January 20. In order to build on the progress from the Trump administration there are four steps a Biden administration should take.
Firstly, the next administration should pause any remaining troop withdraws already in the pipeline from the previous administration. While President Trump was right to start negotiations with the Taliban, he has proven a little too keen to remove U.S. troops before deadline next April. With violence still at relatively high levels in Afghanistan withdrawing US forces from before the deadline would send the wrong signal.
Secondly, the next administration needs to plan for a strong US-Afghanistan bilateral relationship in the future regardless of the outcome of the intra-Afghan talks. A major focus on this relationship will be on security. Put simply, the US must continue to fund, at least in part, the Afghan military for the foreseeable future. The cost to the US taxpayer of doing so is far less than having tens of thousands of US troops on the ground. For example, at the height of the U.S. fighting in Afghanistan in 2011-12 Americans were spending $120 billion a year. For 2021 the U.S. plans to spend only $4 billion on funding the Afghan Ministry of Defense—or about the same amount it was spending in Afghanistan in 2011 every 12 days.
Thirdly, the next administration needs to continue the progress made on connecting Afghanistan to the broader region through economic and trade integration. Landlocked Afghanistan suffers from a lack of connectivity with its neighbors. Thankfully, there is a growing realization of this in Washington. The Trump administration’s strategy for Central Asia published last February placed an important focus on Afghanistan’s role in the region. Two of the six “policy objectives” directly deal with Afghanistan: “Expand and maintain support for stability in Afghanistan” and “Encourage connectivity between Central Asia and Afghanistan.” The next administration should embrace the strategy continue regionally backed economic and trade initiatives like insert information
Finally, the next administration should not be afraid to acknowledge failure if the intra-Afghan talks breakdown. The US has legitimate national security interests in Afghanistan and the region. If a lasting peace cannot be brought through a negotiated settlement then America will need to take steps alongside the Afghan government to develop a new strategy. The incoming administration should not hesitate to make this point crystal clear to the Taliban. Right now, the Taliban think that no matter what happens in the talks come April 2021 all foreign troops will be gone.
A genuine negotiated settlement is the only realistic way for Afghanistan to experience stability and peace. After almost 40 years of fighting, your average Afghan wants peace and the international community must help them along the way.
There will be no enduring and meaningful deal unless there is an agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban. In the long term it matters less what the U.S. agrees to with the Taliban; what matters most is what the Afghan government agrees to with the Taliban.
The intra-Afghan talks is the most crucial stage in the peace process. There will be ups and downs but both sides, along with the international community, must stick with it.
