Crossroads of Hope and Challenge: Afghanistan’s Path Forward

Over three years have passed since the Taliban’s seizure of Kabul on August 15, 2021, and the subsequent formation of an interim government, yet international attention on Afghanistan has diminished. This change indicates a reduction in abrupt and severe incidents, but the suffering of the Afghan populace continues unabated.

A nuanced and comprehensive approach is essential when examining the situation in Afghanistan. While monitoring the challenges faced by the country, we should also acknowledge its positive aspects. As we urge the interim government to combat terrorism, foster inclusive and moderate governance, and safeguard the rights of vulnerable groups such as women and children, we could also prioritize communication strategies that yield tangible results.

Challenges facing Afghanistan

The Afghan populace has faced a persistent and critical challenge over time: ensuring basic survival and security, with a particular focus on meeting the needs for food and clothing. Presently, around 23.7 million individuals, representing more than half of the country’s population, are in dire need of humanitarian aid, among whom 12.4 million are suffering from acute hunger. However, United Nations figures indicate that international aid organizations are only equipped to assist 17.3 million Afghans this year. It is imperative that we continue to pay close and enduring attention to the economic and social developmental setbacks in Afghanistan and the underlying causes behind them.

1.Years of conflict have severely damaged Afghanistan’s already precarious infrastructure. The avenues for the general populace to obtain clean water, electricity, fuel, basic healthcare, and education are severely restricted and challenging to ensure. For example, Mr. Omar, CEO of the Afghanistan Power Company, has stated in October this year that, Afghanistan’s electricity supply stood at just 960 megawatts; of this, between 350 to 400 megawatts are generated locally, whereas the demand is at least 5000 megawatts.

2. Afghanistan exhibits a low utilization efficiency of its mineral and energy resources. Despite its rugged terrain, the country holds significant mineral assets, such as oil, natural gas, and gemstones. However, the extraction of these resources faces challenges due to high costs, extended production cycles, and limited profitability.

Despite the efforts of the Afghan interim government to enhance the management of its domestic mineral resources, the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum announced at its annual report conference in September that it has successfully brought mines under government control, wresting them from organized crime groups. Currently, the department has surveyed 647 mining sites, with 544 actively being mined. This initiative has directly and indirectly created 150,000 job opportunities. Since 2023, mining operations have generated over 10.4 billion Afghanis in actual tax revenue. However, the overall output efficiency of Afghanistan’s mineral resources remains at a nascent stage, and has not yet significantly propelled the development of the national economy.

3. The terrorist forces have not been eradicated, affecting the confidence of domestic and foreign investors. Although the number of terrorist incidents in Afghanistan has sharply decreased since August 2021, terrorist armed groups such as ISIS have not been completely eradicated. On September 12th, there was an attack in Daikundi Province in central Afghanistan, that resulted in over ten civilian death. The extremist group “Khorasan” claims to have carried out the attack. The “Khorasan” also claimed to have caused the shooting incident in Bamyan Province, central Afghanistan in May this year, which resulted in the deaths of six people, including three Spanish citizens. Reuters reported that this incident was among the most severe attacks against foreign tourists in Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover in August 2021.  In addition, on December 13, 2022, the “Khorasan” claimed responsibility for the hotel attack that occurred in Kabul. The hotel is run by Chinese individual operators, which is a great shock to Chinese investors who are willing to invest in Afghanistan after the war.
4. The Afghan interim government is grappling with a brain drain and a dearth of governance strategies, struggling to administer the nation effectively with modern approaches. The Afghan Taliban’s experiences in military conflict and rural administration over the past decades are evidently insufficient to address the demands of national governance. Furthermore, since August 2021, a significant exodus of the middle class and skilled professionals from Afghanistan has exacerbated the challenges faced by the interim government in managing the country.
5. The adverse effects of international sanctions on Afghanistan’s post-war reconstruction are becoming increasingly pronounced, with a notable reduction in international aid. Beyond the freezing of Afghanistan’s foreign assets, sanctions imposed on key members of the Afghan Taliban, and a steep drop in direct financial and material assistance, legitimate restrictions have also introduced technical challenges that significantly impede the governance of the Afghan interim government. For instance, on October 13th, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported in its latest assessment that the Afghan interim government had requested technical assistance from the US State Department to enhance the nation’s banking system. However, such assistance could not be furnished due to lawful and policy-based constraints.

Hopes for Afghanistan

The Afghan issue is intricate and delicate, with decades of turmoil in Afghanistan influenced by a myriad of domestic and international factors. However, at this juncture, we must also recognize a glimmer of hope for steering the Afghan issue towards a proper resolution and for attaining enduring peace, stability, and development in Afghanistan.

1.The civil war has come to an end, resulting in a stabilized social situation. The conflict in Afghanistan has concluded, and the domestic environment is gradually becoming more stable. While some analyses indicate that power struggles and restructuring within the Afghan interim government are intensifying, with three power centers emerging—Kandahar, Kabul, and Doha overseas—the overall situation remains stable. The interim government’s control over Afghanistan’s urban-rural dual structure is unprecedentedly strong. Safety is assured, and domestic transportation in Afghanistan can now reach various counties, districts, and villages, which is beneficial for the people to gradually restore a normal living order, moving away from the shadow of war.

2.Over the past three years, despite a decline in Afghanistan’s total economic output, is has not collapsed and remains largely manageable. Prices and exchange rates are stabilizing with around 70 Afghani per US dollar without significant fluctuations.  Some infrastructure construction is also being carried out in an orderly manner. The Afghan interim government’s Ministry of Economy released a report in September stating that Afghanistan’s GDP has grown by 2.7% over the past year.  In addition to the well-known TAPI project, there has also been progress in the construction of some dams and roads, such as the recently started construction of the Hari Canal in Helmand Province, with an estimated total cost of $400,000.

3.The Afghan interim government has largely redirected its attention from external to internal matters. With the limited international political leverage available to the interim government, it has intensified its focus on domestic economic development and has declared the adoption of a foreign policy centered on economic initiatives. On October 10th, the United Nations General Assembly denied Afghanistan’s bid for voting rights for the second time. Afghanistan has temporarily lost its voting rights in the United Nations General Assembly as a result of its failure to meet its financial commitments to the United Nations over the past three years. At one point, following the establishment of the interim government in Afghanistan, there was a fervent aspiration to gain recognition from the international community. Nevertheless, after nearly three years of diplomatic efforts and patient deliberation, it became evident that a resolution to this matter was not imminent. Consequently, the interim government pivoted its strategy, focusing on internal consolidation, restructuring the power hierarchy, and leveraging economic development as a key instrument to bolster the stability and legitimacy of its governance.

4. The Afghan people yearn for peace with an ardent desire. For a nation that has endured decades of conflict, the general populace deeply longs for tranquility and stability. The specter of war, which endangers lives, halts economic progress, disrupts social order, and hinders the fulfillment of basic needs, has inflicted profound suffering and distress upon the populace. Consequently, as the shadow of war recedes and the light of peace begins to shine, the people typically exhibit a robust sense of stability, fervently hoping that the nation can swiftly reestablish order, reconstruct their homes, and embrace a life of peace. This mindset reflects a profound yearning for peace and an immediate need for a stable living environment.

5.The youthful demographic makeup significantly propels Afghanistan’s development forward. Characterized by its young population, Afghanistan possesses substantial potential for growth, as reflected in the age distribution of its citizens. Data from 2022 indicates that only 2.4% of Afghans are aged 65 and above, while the segment aged 0-14 constitutes 43.1% of the population. This high proportion of young individuals suggests a forthcoming influx of a vast number of workers into the job market. These workers form the bedrock of economic advancement, capable of fueling the nation’s production and service sectors. Young people typically exhibit a readiness to embrace new concepts, coupled with innovative skills and an entrepreneurial drive, all of which are instrumental in fostering technological advancements and business model innovations, thereby stimulating economic expansion. Should this youthful demographic gain access to quality education and employment prospects, they stand to become the “demographic dividend” propelling the nation’s economic surge.

6.The international community is committed to the comprehensive development of Afghanistan. In particular, neighboring nations exhibit a robust desire to aid in the post-war peace and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, with ongoing initiatives. Afghanistan’s immediate neighbors are actively encouraging and facilitating the international community’s attention to the most pressing challenges facing Afghanistan. This is being achieved through various bilateral and multilateral platforms, such as the Afghanistan Neighboring Countries’ Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Moscow Format. These efforts aim to foster constructive contributions to Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development. They also seek to guide the Afghan government in enhancing and fortifying the protection of women’s and children’s rights in a manner that is both equitable and respectful. Additionally, they aim to promote flexible exchanges of governance expertise with Afghanistan. A sustainable and stable Afghanistan represents a positive development for all stakeholders, particularly for the broader region.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it is imperative that Afghanistan not revert to being an overlooked region within the international community. Active engagement and encouragement are essential to guide the Afghan interim government towards constructively addressing the international community’s concerns.

1. It is crucial to delineate clear boundaries and establish definitive red lines; any tolerance or support for terrorism will inevitably lead to self-destruction.
2. Afghanistan possesses a distinct history and current situation. Nevertheless, the interim government must respect the universally accepted values of the international community. Decades of experience and lessons have shown that imposing or employing force to meddle in Afghanistan’s internal affairs yields no positive outcomes. Instead, such actions only lead to a quagmire of war and exacerbate the suffering of the Afghan people.
3. The international community should persist in offering humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.
4. While pressing the Afghan interim government to meet its fundamental obligations and responsibilities as a ruling entity, it is equally important to adopt an equitable perspective and communication strategies.