Study published by the Oxford University and the Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) has revealed that the risk posed to humanity by terrorism in Pakistan is three times the risk posed in Syria.
The report titled ‘Humanity at Risk-Global Terror Threat Indicant (GTTI)’, says, “Afghan Taliban and the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) pose the maximum threat to international security and Pakistan is placed on top of the list of countries with the highest number of terrorist bases and safe havens.”
It said that if one looks at the most dangerous terrorist groups, based on hard facts and statistics, one finds that “Pakistan hosts or aids majority of them”. “Also, there are a significant number of groups based in Afghanistan, which operate with the support of Pakistan.”
The report has been prepared to discuss security challenges in the next decade and it presents an analytical framework for policymakers to tackle terrorism.
“The rise of competitive extremism of all shades, misuse of weapons of mass destruction and economic disruptions can undermine human progress or even survival in the period from now until 2030. They are all interlinked with terrorism,” the report added.
The Strategic Foresight Group analyzed some 200 groups actively involved in committing acts of terror in the first half decade of the 21st century. During that period, the groups who were motivated by their own interpretation of ideology accounted for only a fourth of almost 200 terror groups around the world.
Among these, ISIS has attracted much of media space in the last five years. But with swift rise and fall of ISIS, the Al-Qaeda remains the most resilient network. Until 2011, it was led by Osama Bin Laden but now his son, Hamza bin Osama bin Laden has emerged, as what sections of the media describe, as the “new crown prince of terror”.
The report says that the most significant factor influencing the future of terror groups would be the support they get from states, intelligence agencies and criminal networks.
“The birth of Al-Qaeda was in Pakistan and then Pakistan influenced Afghanistan. Osama Bin Laden had a safe haven in a huge compound near the Pakistani military establishment in Abbottabad. The compound was much larger than the surrounding houses of retired Pakistani military officers. The occupants of the compound often bought expensive goods from a neighborhood shop that most people in the vicinity could not afford. The presence of an important family in the compound was nothing but conspicuous,” the report said.
The report has also given comprehensive details about global terror outfits operating from Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen and other countries who have linkages with each other.
The report also talks about the Jihadi movement having survived in Pakistan and Afghanistan is now spreading to the Middle East and North and West Africa.
