The recent upsurge in the Afghan peace process has given the nation reason to be optimistic about the end of a conflict that has persisted for almost two decades. Following meetings between the US and the Taliban last year and the appointment of Zalmay Khalilzad as US special envoy, the mood in Afghanistan has generally been upbeat.
Nevertheless, the process has been in the shadow of legitimate concerns raised by Afghan experts and peace advocates. Firstly, the apprehension is that the Taliban might be “cheating” on the peace process just as they have for years, by engaging in peace negotiations with the government during winter, which is off-season for combat operations, to buy time and prepare for their spring offensives.
However, enhanced levels of engagement between the US and the Taliban certainly appear more genuine than those in the past, even despite the lack of demonstration of political will from the Taliban through any practical action. While they have been seeking the full withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan, they have been persistently unprepared to agree to a ceasefire, even on a future timeline.
Adamantly, the Taliban have sidelined the Afghan government while continuing their engagement with the American negotiation team. The effort is consistently undermining the civilian government and dividing the Afghan political polity. As such, it seems the Taliban are looking to dominate the peace negotiation as manipulators of decisions about the future makeup of governance arrangements. Major concerns are that the Taliban are looking to reverse the current democratic state system and aiming to re-establish their regime of the mid 90s. Talk about an interim government is adding to public nervousness that the country might be on its way back to a hardline Taliban regime.
After the marathon Doha meetings, the Taliban political chief Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai spoke about dissolving the national army as it was established by the Americans. His comments were met with outrage on social media and eventually made him regress from his position with a revised stance in Moscow. But even in Russia, his statements added to a growing sense of anxiety caused by talk of the establishment of an interim setup, a proposal that has been floating on the political scene since the Abu Dhabi meeting between Khalilzad and the Taliban.
The urgency of the Americans is not lost on anyone. President Trump’s South Asia strategy announced in August 2017 put a great deal of pressure on Pakistan, an alleged harborer of the Taliban on its soil, to win back the confidence of the Americans. Considering that Donald Trump is in a hurry to deliver on his electoral promise of ending the Afghan conflict, the inconclusive attitude of the Taliban might be a sign that they are only attempting to reduce that pressure by being seen engaging in talks.
The concern is that the Taliban might be aiming to tire out the Americans, so that they concede to demands in return for the fig leaf of a fake Afghan peace process. Another concern is that the Americans might commit to leaving the country without a clearly agreed-upon peace road map, and lead the country to chaos in a repeat of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, which caused a long and bloody civil war.
The ambiguities about the modalities of a possible Taliban return, their status in post peace-deal Afghanistan, their stance on the national security forces, position on the constitution, women’s rights, and vision for the national political system is a long list of legitimate concerns attached to the peace and reconciliation process.
Moreover, the engagement of the Taliban with all spheres except the national government lends great credence to the opinion that they are pursuing the collapse of the state and a return to the old Taliban regime. Afghan women in particular have been concerned with their lack of voice in the entire process. They fear a return to their pre-2001 status, a ban on female engagement in business outside the home and access to education. The Afghan Women’s Network has officially asked for the protection of their rights and freedoms with a social media campaign titled “Afghan women will not go back.”
It is true that Afghans are eagerly awaiting an end to the conflict. But a peace deal that takes the country back to the Taliban regime of the 90’s is not a solution that should be on the table. A peace deal without the assurance of sustaining the gains of almost two decades of investment and enlightenment might halt the physical conflict, but what it cannot guarantee is a durable peace.
