Afghanistan’s War On COVID-19: Politics Of The Pandemic

Two-front War
Afghanistan is presently fighting a two-front war—against the scourge of terrorism and the Covid-19 pandemic. In the face of rising violence and limited testing capabilities, the number of infections has risen sharply to 8065 with 179 deaths (as on 19 May 2020).[1] The International Organization for Migration, in the first week of May, projected that the country could be on its way to have one of the highest Covid-19 infections in the world. The projection was made after results of a randomized sample of 500 people in Kabul, which so far has been the worst affected[2], showed an alarming infection rate of 50 percent. Cases of infections have been reported from all the 34 provinces of the country. As this crisis stretches the capacity of the health sector in the country, lethal insurgent attacks have not provided the citizens any respite. Both the Taliban as well as the Islamic State have been relentless in their attacks on civilian facilities. Targets, in the recent past, have included a maternity hospital in Kabul and funeral gathering in Jalalabad, as well as security forces. This has posed a serious challenge for the Afghan government and US-Taliban peace deal.
Battle for ‘Hearts and Minds’
The pandemic is being actively used by the insurgents to win the ‘hearts and minds’ of the populace.
Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid told media, “The spread of Covid-19 is an important issue for us. We have taken all measures to fight against it as strong as possible, and we also have a structured plan.” He said Taliban fighters are traveling to remote villages via motorcycles to distribute leaflets, soap bars, and hand sanitizer. Another Taliban commander also spoke of not allowing the virus to gain control of ‘our country’. The group’s ‘General Commission for Public Health’ has listed precautions that people should take, including regular prayers, eating “halal” as well as medical advice. In some villages, media has reported, people have even been provided with a list of vegetables that contain high amounts of vitamin C to boost immunity. In the provinces where the Taliban have shadow governments, new directors of Public Health have been appointed by the group. The group has even accessed testing kits from undisclosed sources, which is apparently in short supply in the government.
Taliban’s Outreach
A part of the reason for the Taliban’s activism could be due to the fact that its own cadres have been infected by the virus. In the absence of proactive measures, the infections could simply grow and impact the group’s fighting capacities. According to a media report in April, the Médecins Sans Frontières reported 125 positive cases of infection in Taliban’s different ranks in six provinces (Paktiya, Badghis, Ghazni, Helmand, Wardak and Baghlan) within a time span of 72 hours. Out of 472 suspected samples, 31 positive cases were registered in Paktiya, 40 in Badghis, 17 in Ghazni, 13 in Helmand, 9 in Wardak and 15 in Baghlan provinces. Following this revelation, the Taliban stopped the MSF from testing more samples in the regions under their control, the report said.
Taliban strategies are also geared towards gaining wider acceptability. The group has been spoken of its willingness to announce ceasefire in areas that have been affected by an outbreak of the virus. In September 2019, the group had lifted a ban on the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Red Cross on certain conditions. In a statement in March 2020, it promised safe passage to international healthcare organisations and humanitarian workers fighting the pandemic. The group even urged health agencies to provide medicine, send aid and the necessary equipment to areas under their control. However, with regard to house-to-house vaccination for other diseases like Polio, a blanket ban by the Taliban has not been relaxed.
Trust building
The Taliban has allowed NGOs approved by the government access to its territory where they are able to deliver the healthcare assistance the government cannot. The group is in fact asking the refugees returning from Iran to avail the testing facility provided by the government hospitals, quarantine themselves for 14 days, and have even provided ambulances to ferry the patients. On occasions, they have quarantined infected persons and have detained returnees from Iran who escaped from government-run quarantine facilities. The government departments, in turn, are appreciative of such gestures and have welcomed whatever assistance they can get from the insurgents in terms of raising awareness of the people regarding the virus.[3] This has led some to predict that the pandemic can help build trust between the two warring sides. The Human Rights Watch has opined that both the government and the insurgents should ‘work together with the UN and humanitarian agencies to ensure that aid reaches the whole country, or a dire situation will become catastrophic.’[4]
Blurred Red lines
However, such gestures by the Taliban could merely be directed at gaining publicity, some sort of legitimacy and winning the ‘hearts and minds’ of the common Afghans vis-à-vis the government. This is clear from the fact that the Taliban have refused to accede to an appeal for a ceasefire by President Ghani, with its spokesperson Suhail Shaheen terming it neither ‘rational nor convincing.’ The group has promised to declare ceasefire only if areas it controls ‘are hit by a coronavirus outbreak’.
The group is suspected to be behind the gruesome attack on civilians and subsequently on a military base in Gardez that killed five civilians and wounded 19 people including five Afghan National Army (ANA) personnel. This has forced the government to order the launch an offensive against the Taliban and suspend release of Taliban prisoners, a move that has been decried by the Russia’s presidential envoy as detrimental to the ongoing peace process.
The ‘Peace’ Paradox
This indicates that, in the days to come, intense fighting will continue between the government forces and the insurgents even as the country grapples with how to deal with the pandemic. Former Chief Executive of Afghanistan, Dr. Abdullah had once remarked that the money Afghanistan spends in a day’s war with the insurgents is enough to build a modern hospital.[5] The incessant fight bleeds the country’s economy, leaving it with little option but to continue dependence on international assistance. Seeking a way out of this permanent state of war has not been easy. The recently concluded deal between the U.S. and the Taliban is stuck in a limbo due to a variety of reasons that includes distrust between the government and the insurgents; prisoner release; and the lack of progress in initiating an intra-Afghan dialogue.
The Covid-19 pandemic could not have come at a worse time for Afghanistan. It will add to the pressure and limited capacity of the Afghan health sector and service delivery mechanism, thereby impinging on the credibility of the Afghan state. At the same time, the Taliban measures to elicit acceptability may boost its bargaining potential. The U.S., which is largely seen as bolting to the door, may further pressure the Afghan government to move ahead with the peace process with the insurgents, in the lines as envisaged in the U.S.-Taliban deal.